Trump takes lead in RCP average

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Now, yes:

1. A candidate does usually get a bounce after consolidating the nomination and Hillary may very well get a similar bounce when she clinches.

2. One of the polls, Rasmussen Reports, has shown a strong GOP house effect.

3. It's a very small lead

Still, while I don't think Trump will win, I think I might now peg him as something like a 3-2 underdog, or 2-1 at the very most, rather than a 4 or 5 to 1 underdog I would have said a couple of months ago.

It may not be in his nature, but what if he did now pivot and back down from his inflammatory rhetoric (I mean about Mexicans and women, not about Hillary or Liz Warren) like a good politician would figure out a way to do? Could the mood of the country and Hillary's unlikeability possibly catapult Trump to the White House? Because I wish the success of the United States (and the world), I don't want Trump in the WH, but part of me is just so curious as to what would happen; kind of like the impulse to watch a train wreck.

People seem to underestimate American susceptibility to celebrities, and how much Americans value "likability". I keep seeing arguments about why Trump can't win for such-and-such seemingly rational reasons; however, they all fail to take into account that there's no rational reason why someone like Trump would win the nomination of a major political party.

This is what gives me doubts about the supposed inevitability of Clinton's win. U.S. presidential debates are won by presence, one-liners and the ability to embarrass the opponent, rather than who had the most sensible, well thought out views.

Trump, at his most well-behaved, is far more likable than Hillary, who comes across as frigid and humorless. This will definitely work against Hillary, especially with those who are part of the "Bernie or Bust" movement (people who have pledged to not vote should Bernie lose the primaries).

I've seen some decent arguments as to why Trump can't win, but I've been seeing them ever since he first announced his run. I think it's a coin-flip right now.

I wonder: if we give Trump a chance, could he possibly do a good job as president? Maybe it's all we can hope for.

Originally posted by vivify
I wonder: if we give Trump a chance, could he possibly do a good job as president? Maybe it's all we can hope for.

It's possible, I guess. But we'd have to hope his hotheadedness and mindless demagoguery is just a ploy and not his actual belief system. If he's really as hotheaded and shallow as he sounds, it's hard to see him having the wisdom and depth to be a good President.

Originally posted by sh76
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Now, yes:

1. A candidate does usually get a bounce after consolidating the nomination and Hillary may very well get a similar bounce when she clinches.

2. One of the polls, Rasmussen Reports, has shown a strong GOP house effect.

3. It's a very small ...[text shortened]... me is just so curious as to what would happen; kind of like the impulse to watch a train wreck.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Donald Trump won.Only in America could mental giants such as Sarah Palin, Dan Quail, or GW Bush be elected to high public offices. The Donald seems slightly smarter than these three, but he'll have all the proper qualities of a good republican: Arrogance, Bullying, An over inflated sense of entitlement, Hypocritical draft dodger (most of them are!) Totally out of touch with the average American employee, Thinks all foreign policy problems should be solved by sending in the marines. Uses the Bible as a political tool, Is considering which oil company executive to put in charge of the environmental protection agency. 😞 Hillary is not very popular, and Democrats are less disciplined voters than Republicans, so don't be surprised if we're saying "President Trump in 2016.

Originally posted by sh76
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Now, yes:

1. A candidate does usually get a bounce after consolidating the nomination and Hillary may very well get a similar bounce when she clinches.

2. One of the polls, Rasmussen Reports, has shown a strong GOP house effect.

3. It's a very small ...[text shortened]... me is just so curious as to what would happen; kind of like the impulse to watch a train wreck.

Trump has consolidated the GOP base; Hillary hasn't quite done so for the Democrats. She will. And the demographics and electoral map still strongly favor Clinton.

3 or 4:1 still seems about right.

People usually vote with their pocket books.

I think Obama won because he offered his Obamaphone and cheaper and better health care. LOL.

Trump is running on the notion of providing people with jobs and bringing them back to the US.

Hillary.................travels to West Virginia and tells coal minors she is going to take their jobs. LOL.

If it were not for the following fact, I'd say Trump can win.

In the last six elections, 19 states and Washington, DC have voted for the Democrat every time. Their total electoral votes add up to 242, just 28 away from the necessary 270 to win.

If Clinton wins Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, game over.

In the same six elections, 13 states have voted for the Republican every time. Their electoral votes only add up to 102. That puts the Republican 168 electoral votes short.

Delegates have become partisan shills.

Despite this, I still think Hillary desperately needs to dangle a carrot like free school or free cars or some such nonsense.

Originally posted by vivify
I wonder: if we give Trump a chance, could he possibly do a good job as president? Maybe it's all we can hope for.

Trump is truly an unknown quantity in government. Hillary is well known, and disliked. I think I'm willing to take a chance on Trump.

Originally posted by bill718
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Donald Trump won.Only in America could mental giants such as Sarah Palin, Dan Quail, or GW Bush be elected to high public offices. The Donald seems slightly smarter than these three, but he'll have all the proper qualities of a good republican: Arrogance, Bullying, An over inflated sense of entitlement, Hypocritical draft ...[text shortened]... iplined voters than Republicans, so don't be surprised if we're saying "President Trump in 2016.

Of your mental midgets, only GW won elected office, and guess what! Seeing thing differently than you doesn't make anyone a mental midget.

"Arrogance, Bullying, An over inflated sense of entitlement,"

Sounds like Barry to me.

I'll go on record here stating that if Trump picks a woman as a running mate his poll numbers will fall.

Women simply don't do well. Just look at what happened to Palin and even Hillary losing to Obama.

Once Cruz chose a woman he fell apart.

Originally posted by normbenign
Trump is truly an unknown quantity in government. Hillary is well known, and disliked. I think I'm willing to take a chance on Trump.

Trump is far from "unknown". He's lead a very public life, both professionally and personally. That spotlight has only grown since running for public office. That said, what is known about him is often quite unflattering.

Originally posted by vivify
People seem to underestimate American susceptibility to celebrities, and how much Americans value "likability".

I am actually shocked by how well Bernie has done as I don't find him very likeable. He just doesn't have the look of a leader. I surprised myself by how much that affects my opinion of him quite separately from his political views. That he has done so well suggests a) people value his views over his likability or b) some people do like his character c) people dislike the alternatives more.
I would certainly vote for him if I was American. I would choose Hillary over Trump even though I don't think much of her, but Trump would be an absolute disaster. Here in Africa we know full well what a bad leader can do in a few short years.

Originally posted by vivify
Trump is far from "unknown". He's lead a very public life, both professionally and personally. That spotlight has only grown since running for public office. That said, what is known about him is often quite unflattering.

I stand corrected, but I was referring to people knowing him as a politician seeking elective office. At times that turns out to be an unwarranted negative. Hard to remember a President that got much of bounce out of business experience.The opposition always portrays the businessman as out of touch and rich.

Strangely, many who get rich in politics get a pass that isn't afforded to those that earn their wealth.

Trump has been a politician for what, less than a year? Pretty obviously, elective office is more limiting than self employed entrepreneurship. Trump, if elected, can't tell Congress they're all fired.

If the general turns out to be Trump vs. Hillary, it could represent a contest of the least liked Presidential candidates in history.

Originally posted by twhitehead
I am actually shocked by how well Bernie has done as I don't find him very likeable. He just doesn't have the look of a leader. I surprised myself by how much that affects my opinion of him quite separately from his political views. That he has done so well suggests a) people value his views over his likability or b) some people do like his character c) p ...[text shortened]... solute disaster. Here in Africa we know full well what a bad leader can do in a few short years.

Usually voters are offered like a free phone or trinket to win elections but with Bernie he just says @uck it I'll give free everything! 😵

Originally posted by whodey
Usually voters are offered like a free phone or trinket to win elections but with Bernie he just says @uck it I'll give free everything! 😵

Repeating silly lies and right wing propaganda points seems to be your life's work now.

Bernie has spelled out how he would pay for all his programs actually.